Power rankings

These are the Honest Line model's internal predictive ratings — the same numbers behind every nightly pick. The model rates teams with margin-adjusted Elo; the rating shown here converts Elo to points at the model's own fitted rate (30 Elo points = 1 point of margin), so it reads as a team's expected margin against an average team on a neutral court, before the nightly rest and star-availability adjustments. This is not a resume ranking: it doesn't care about win-loss records or headlines, and it moves only when games are played. Like everything here, it's published to be checked, not believed.

#	Team	Rating	Trend
1	San Antonio Spurs	+4.7	▲ 28
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	+4.4	▲ 16
3	Detroit Pistons	+4.2	▲ 25
4	Boston Celtics	+3.5	▼ 3
5	Denver Nuggets	+3.2	▼ 2
6	Charlotte Hornets	+2.8	▲ 20
7	New York Knicks	+2.4	–
8	Cleveland Cavaliers	+2.3	▼ 3
9	Houston Rockets	+2.2	▲ 21
10	Los Angeles Lakers	+2.0	▲ 6
11	Atlanta Hawks	+1.6	▲ 1
12	Toronto Raptors	+1.1	▲ 8
13	Minnesota Timberwolves	+0.9	▲ 4
14	Phoenix Suns	+0.9	▲ 5
15	Los Angeles Clippers	+0.7	▲ 8
16	Orlando Magic	+0.7	▲ 11
17	Philadelphia 76ers	+0.6	▼ 9
18	Miami Heat	+0.5	▼ 9
19	Portland Trail Blazers	+0.4	▲ 5
20	Golden State Warriors	-1.5	▼ 5
21	New Orleans Pelicans	-2.0	▼ 15
22	Dallas Mavericks	-3.1	▼ 8
23	Milwaukee Bucks	-3.1	▼ 13
24	Chicago Bulls	-3.2	▼ 11
25	Indiana Pacers	-3.5	▼ 3
26	Sacramento Kings	-3.8	▼ 15
27	Utah Jazz	-4.2	▼ 6
28	Memphis Grizzlies	-4.4	▼ 26
29	Brooklyn Nets	-4.7	▼ 25
30	Washington Wizards	-5.7	▼ 5

Ratings refresh with each nightly model run. A positive rating means the model would favor the team on a neutral court; negative means it would be an underdog. For how the ratings are built, see the methodology page. For whether they beat Vegas, see the track record — nothing hidden.