Power rankings
These are the Honest Line model's internal predictive ratings for college football — the same numbers behind every weekly pick. A team's rating is its expected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, built only from play-by-play efficiency (predicted points added per play), opponent-adjusted. This is not a resume ranking: it doesn't care about win-loss records, polls, or headlines, and it moves only when games are played. Like everything here, it's published to be checked, not believed.
| # | Team | Rating | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | +37.7 | – |
| 2 | Indiana | +34.3 | – |
| 3 | Ohio State | +30.9 | – |
| 4 | Utah | +29.2 | – |
| 5 | Miami | +27.8 | – |
| 6 | Georgia | +26.5 | – |
| 7 | Alabama | +23.7 | – |
| 8 | Oregon | +20.7 | – |
| 9 | James Madison | +19.6 | – |
| 10 | Texas Tech | +18.9 | – |
| 11 | LSU | +17.7 | – |
| 12 | Texas | +17.6 | – |
| 13 | North Dakota State | +17.5 | – |
| 14 | Washington | +16.8 | – |
| 15 | USC | +16.3 | – |
| 16 | Penn State | +16.2 | – |
| 17 | Oklahoma | +15.0 | – |
| 18 | BYU | +14.7 | – |
| 19 | Ole Miss | +14.6 | – |
| 20 | Iowa | +14.5 | – |
| 21 | Boise State | +14.4 | – |
| 22 | Arizona | +13.8 | – |
| 23 | Tennessee | +13.1 | – |
| 24 | New Mexico | +12.9 | – |
| 25 | Kansas State | +12.4 | – |
| 26 | Wake Forest | +11.9 | – |
| 27 | North Texas | +11.7 | – |
| 28 | Texas State | +11.7 | – |
| 29 | Vanderbilt | +11.6 | – |
| 30 | Louisville | +11.5 | – |
| 31 | SMU | +10.6 | – |
| 32 | Northwestern | +10.5 | – |
| 33 | Kansas | +9.9 | – |
| 34 | Missouri | +9.5 | – |
| 35 | South Florida | +9.0 | – |
| 36 | Nebraska | +8.9 | – |
| 37 | Auburn | +8.6 | – |
| 38 | Pittsburgh | +8.1 | – |
| 39 | Toledo | +8.0 | – |
| 40 | Michigan | +7.3 | – |
| 41 | East Carolina | +7.0 | – |
| 42 | Wisconsin | +6.7 | – |
| 43 | San Diego State | +6.5 | – |
| 44 | Texas A&M | +6.3 | – |
| 45 | Virginia | +6.2 | – |
| 46 | Liberty | +5.9 | – |
| 47 | Houston | +5.8 | – |
| 48 | Duke | +5.6 | – |
| 49 | UTSA | +5.6 | – |
| 50 | Iowa State | +5.5 | – |
| 51 | Utah State | +5.4 | – |
| 52 | UNLV | +5.3 | – |
| 53 | Florida State | +5.1 | – |
| 54 | TCU | +5.1 | – |
| 55 | Baylor | +4.9 | – |
| 56 | Florida | +4.5 | – |
| 57 | UCLA | +4.4 | – |
| 58 | Old Dominion | +4.0 | – |
| 59 | Washington State | +4.0 | – |
| 60 | Cincinnati | +3.5 | – |
| 61 | Mississippi State | +3.2 | – |
| 62 | Clemson | +2.9 | – |
| 63 | South Carolina | +2.1 | – |
| 64 | Kentucky | +1.9 | – |
| 65 | Navy | +1.5 | – |
| 66 | Fresno State | +1.3 | – |
| 67 | Temple | +1.1 | – |
| 68 | Marshall | +0.9 | – |
| 69 | Florida International | +0.5 | – |
| 70 | Tulane | +0.4 | – |
| 71 | Army | 0.0 | – |
| 72 | Louisiana | 0.0 | – |
| 73 | NC State | 0.0 | – |
| 74 | Jacksonville State | -1.5 | – |
| 75 | Western Michigan | -1.7 | – |
| 76 | UConn | -1.8 | – |
| 77 | Minnesota | -1.9 | – |
| 78 | Virginia Tech | -2.1 | – |
| 79 | Illinois | -2.2 | – |
| 80 | Georgia Tech | -2.3 | – |
| 81 | UCF | -2.5 | – |
| 82 | Memphis | -2.8 | – |
| 83 | Ohio | -3.0 | – |
| 84 | Air Force | -3.2 | – |
| 85 | Arkansas | -3.4 | – |
| 86 | Georgia State | -3.5 | – |
| 87 | Central Michigan | -3.6 | – |
| 88 | Miami (OH) | -3.7 | – |
| 89 | Oregon State | -3.8 | – |
| 90 | San José State | -4.7 | – |
| 91 | Michigan State | -5.1 | – |
| 92 | Georgia Southern | -5.5 | – |
| 93 | North Carolina | -5.7 | – |
| 94 | Tulsa | -6.0 | – |
| 95 | Kennesaw State | -6.5 | – |
| 96 | Troy | -6.6 | – |
| 97 | Purdue | -6.7 | – |
| 98 | Louisiana Tech | -6.8 | – |
| 99 | Arizona State | -7.3 | – |
| 100 | Boston College | -7.6 | – |
| 101 | South Alabama | -7.9 | – |
| 102 | Arkansas State | -8.0 | – |
| 103 | App State | -8.3 | – |
| 104 | Stanford | -8.3 | – |
| 105 | Wyoming | -8.9 | – |
| 106 | Oklahoma State | -9.8 | – |
| 107 | Southern Miss | -9.9 | – |
| 108 | Colorado | -10.0 | – |
| 109 | Florida Atlantic | -10.2 | – |
| 110 | Coastal Carolina | -10.4 | – |
| 111 | West Virginia | -10.5 | – |
| 112 | UAB | -10.9 | – |
| 113 | Buffalo | -11.0 | – |
| 114 | Maryland | -11.0 | – |
| 115 | Colorado State | -11.2 | – |
| 116 | Hawai'i | -11.2 | – |
| 117 | Nevada | -11.3 | – |
| 118 | Delaware | -11.7 | – |
| 119 | Eastern Michigan | -11.9 | – |
| 120 | California | -12.0 | – |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | -12.9 | – |
| 122 | Missouri State | -14.0 | – |
| 123 | Western Kentucky | -14.7 | – |
| 124 | New Mexico State | -14.8 | – |
| 125 | Ball State | -15.6 | – |
| 126 | Rutgers | -16.6 | – |
| 127 | Bowling Green | -16.8 | – |
| 128 | Kent State | -17.1 | – |
| 129 | Sam Houston | -19.5 | – |
| 130 | Rice | -19.6 | – |
| 131 | Akron | -19.9 | – |
| 132 | Northern Illinois | -21.7 | – |
| 133 | Sacramento State | -22.2 | – |
| 134 | Syracuse | -22.2 | – |
| 135 | UL Monroe | -23.6 | – |
| 136 | Charlotte | -25.0 | – |
| 137 | Massachusetts | -28.0 | – |
| 138 | UTEP | -30.5 | – |
Ratings refresh with each weekly model run. A positive rating means the model would favor the team on a neutral field; negative means it would be an underdog. For how the ratings are built, see the methodology page. For whether they beat Vegas, see the track record — nothing hidden.