Full history · nothing hidden
Track record
Margin-adjusted Elo, fundamentals only (final scores; the line is never an input). Walk-forward: every prediction made before learning the result.
2026 season — livegrading in progress
This season’s picks, graded as games go final. Nothing hidden, nothing rewritten.
15-24-2
38%
Against the spread, 2026
14-13-0
52%
Over/under, 2026
1-1-0
50%
Parlay of the week, 2026
Week 7 · partial
Parlay:Under 42.5 · Over 47.5 · Under 38.5—
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS | O/U pick | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ CHICHI -3 | — | NE +3 (50%) | — | Under 50.5 (51%) | — |
| PIT @ NOPIT -3.5 | — | NO +3.5 (50%) | — | Under 44.5 (51%) | — |
| SF @ ATLSF -3.5 | — | ATL +3.5 (50%) | — | No play | — |
| CIN @ BALBAL -2.5 | — | CIN +2.5 (50%) | — | No play | — |
| TB @ CARCAR -3.5 | — | CAR -3.5 (50%) | — | Under 44.5 (51%) | — |
| NYG @ HOUHOU -10 | — | HOU -10 (50%) | — | Under 42.5 (51%) | — |
| IND @ MINMIN -6.5 | — | MIN -6.5 (50%) | — | No play | — |
| MIA @ NYJNYJ -4.5 | — | MIA +4.5 (50%) | — | No play | — |
| CLE @ TENCLE -1.5 | — | CLE -1.5 (50%) | — | Under 38.5 (52%) | — |
| DEN @ ARIDEN -4.5 | — | DEN -4.5 (50%) | — | No play | — |
| GB @ DETDET -3 | — | GB +3 (50%) | — | No play | — |
| LA @ LVLA -4.5 | — | LA -4.5 (50%) | — | Over 47.5 (53%) | — |
| KC @ SEASEA -2.5 | — | SEA -2.5 (50%) | — | Under 42.5 (53%) | — |
| DAL @ PHIDAL -4.5 | — | PHI +4.5 (50%) | — | Over 44.5 (52%) | — |
Week 6
Parlay:Over 50.5 · Under 40.5 · Under 40.5—
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS | O/U pick | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DENSEA -2.5 | 14-17 | SEA -2.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| HOU @ JAXJAX -2.5 | 34-31 | JAX -2.5 (50%) | loss | Under 42.5 (50%) | loss |
| CHI @ ATLCHI -1.5 | 31-23 | ATL +1.5 (50%) | loss | Over 51.5 (51%) | win |
| BAL @ CLEBAL -3.5 | 10-13 | BAL -3.5 (50%) | loss | Under 40.5 (51%) | win |
| TEN @ INDIND -7 | 26-20 | No play | — | Over 44.5 (51%) | win |
| NYJ @ NENE -7.5 | 19-26 | NE -7.5 (50%) | loss | Under 43.5 (53%) | loss |
| NO @ NYGNO -1.5 | 34-27 | NYG +1.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| CAR @ PHICAR -3.5 | 25-14 | PHI +3.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| PIT @ TBPIT -2.5 | 26-19 | TB +2.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| ARI @ LALA -12.5 | 18-16 | LA -12.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| LAC @ KCKC -7.5 | 6-22 | LAC +7.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| BUF @ LVBUF -5.5 | 33-30 | BUF -5.5 (50%) | loss | Over 53.5 (50%) | win |
| DAL @ GBGB -1.5 | 13-23 | GB -1.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
| WAS @ SFSF -7.5 | 17-23 | SF -7.5 (50%) | loss | Over 51.5 (50%) | loss |
Week 5
Parlay:Under 41.5 · Under 39.5 · Over 43.5win
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS | O/U pick | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DALDAL -9.5 | 24-16 | TB +9.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
| PHI @ JAXJAX -7.5 | 17-19 | JAX -7.5 (50%) | loss | Under 41.5 (51%) | win |
| CHI @ GBCHI -1.5 | 7-31 | CHI -1.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| CIN @ MIACIN -7 | 31-24 | CIN -7 (50%) | push | No play | — |
| LV @ NENE -3.5 | 17-45 | NE -3.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
| MIN @ NOMIN -2.5 | 23-13 | MIN -2.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
| CLE @ NYJNYJ -2.5 | 12-17 | CLE +2.5 (50%) | loss | Under 39.5 (50%) | win |
| IND @ PITPIT -3 | 22-34 | IND +3 (50%) | loss | Over 43.5 (51%) | win |
| HOU @ TENHOU -7 | 26-3 | HOU -7 (50%) | win | No play | — |
| NYG @ WASWAS -3.5 | 27-27 | NYG +3.5 (50%) | win | Over 41.5 (50%) | win |
| DEN @ LACDEN -3.5 | 23-17 | No play | — | No play | — |
| DET @ ARIDET -5.5 | 45-21 | ARI +5.5 (50%) | loss | Over 54.5 (52%) | win |
| SF @ SEASEA -3 | 32-29 | SEA -3 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
| BAL @ ATLATL -3.5 | 30-23 | BAL +3.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
| BUF @ LALA -3 | 37-34 | LA -3 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
Week 4
Parlay:CHI -3.5 · Under 42.5 · Under 47.5loss
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS | O/U pick | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ CLEPIT -2.5 | 24-27 | No play | — | Under 38.5 (80%) | loss |
| IND @ WASIND -3.5 | 30-13 | IND -3.5 (61%) | win | Over 47.5 (86%) | loss |
| TEN @ BALBAL -11.5 | 18-24 | BAL -11.5 (60%) | loss | Over 42.5 (67%) | loss |
| NE @ BUFBUF -6.5 | 29-26 | NE +6.5 (65%) | win | Over 48.5 (68%) | win |
| NYJ @ CHICHI -3.5 | 12-23 | CHI -3.5 (90%) | win | Over 43.5 (76%) | loss |
| JAX @ CINCIN -2.5 | 22-17 | JAX +2.5 (84%) | win | Over 51.5 (64%) | loss |
| DAL @ HOUHOU -3 | 34-30 | HOU -3 (79%) | loss | Over 48.5 (56%) | win |
| ARI @ NYGARI -2.5 | 24-36 | NYG +2.5 (65%) | win | Over 44.5 (78%) | win |
| LA @ PHILA -3 | 24-20 | LA -3 (67%) | win | Over 43.5 (57%) | win |
| GB @ TBGB -3.5 | 17-14 | TB +3.5 (55%) | win | Over 38.5 (84%) | loss |
| MIA @ MINMIN -10.5 | 10-15 | MIA +10.5 (54%) | win | Under 38.5 (65%) | win |
| KC @ LVKC -4.5 | 30-27 | KC -4.5 (76%) | loss | Under 47.5 (87%) | loss |
| LAC @ SEASEA -7 | 23-30 | SEA -7 (83%) | push | Under 42.5 (88%) | loss |
| DEN @ SFSF -3 | 14-24 | DEN +3 (61%) | loss | Over 47.5 (70%) | loss |
| DET @ CARDET -3.5 | 26-32 | DET -3.5 (54%) | loss | No play | — |
| ATL @ NONO -2.5 | 45-24 | No play | — | Under 47.5 (84%) | loss |
Historical backtest
45 seasons of walk-forward predictions from our earlier Elo model — the predecessor to today's EPA ratings — graded against actual final scores.
45
Seasons backtested
11,352
Games
64%
Straight-up
3738-3436-201 · 52%
ATS (≥1.5pt edge)
ATS by decade — the edge decays
The model beats bad lines from weak eras. Against the modern market, it does not. The dashed line is 52.4% — break-even against standard -110 vig.
1980s
54%
1990s
51%
2000s
52%
2010s
52%
2020s
51%
| Decade | Record | Win % | Our RMSE | Line RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 677-580-27 | 54% | 13.97 | 13.80 |
| 1990s | 813-768-47 | 51% | 13.40 | 13.04 |
| 2000s | 895-827-43 | 52% | 13.86 | 13.46 |
| 2010s | 881-803-52 | 52% | 13.66 | 13.29 |
| 2020s | 472-458-32 | 51% | 13.25 | 12.72 |
52.4% is break-even against standard -110 vig. Green = profitable, red = not.
Season by season
Every season the model was tested on. Green ATS seasons beat the vig; the rest didn’t.
| Season | Games | Straight-up | Our RMSE | Line RMSE | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 285 | 66% | 13.37 | 12.69 | 85-95-7 | 47% |
| 2023 | 285 | 61% | 13.60 | 13.26 | 89-83-9 | 52% |
| 2022 | 284 | 62% | 11.97 | 11.46 | 97-97-6 | 50% |
| 2021 | 285 | 59% | 14.12 | 13.55 | 99-98-4 | 50% |
| 2020 | 269 | 62% | 13.17 | 12.65 | 102-85-6 | 55% |
| 2019 | 267 | 65% | 13.68 | 13.05 | 93-88-8 | 51% |
| 2018 | 267 | 64% | 13.38 | 13.00 | 93-75-6 | 55% |
| 2017 | 267 | 66% | 13.85 | 13.27 | 89-84-6 | 51% |
| 2016 | 267 | 62% | 12.05 | 11.74 | 76-95-3 | 44% |
| 2015 | 267 | 65% | 13.24 | 13.04 | 95-71-6 | 57% |
| 2014 | 267 | 69% | 14.48 | 14.42 | 84-67-4 | 56% |
| 2013 | 267 | 64% | 13.31 | 12.90 | 95-89-8 | 52% |
| 2012 | 267 | 62% | 14.42 | 13.92 | 85-78-3 | 52% |
| 2011 | 267 | 66% | 14.05 | 13.67 | 94-77-7 | 55% |
| 2010 | 267 | 64% | 14.12 | 13.85 | 77-79-1 | 49% |
| 2009 | 267 | 69% | 14.95 | 14.33 | 100-91-4 | 52% |
| 2008 | 267 | 63% | 14.13 | 13.90 | 93-84-4 | 53% |
| 2007 | 267 | 62% | 13.98 | 13.37 | 92-84-2 | 52% |
| 2006 | 267 | 60% | 13.55 | 13.46 | 94-67-4 | 58% |
| 2005 | 267 | 67% | 13.79 | 13.04 | 70-106-6 | 40% |
| 2004 | 267 | 62% | 13.42 | 12.89 | 92-91-3 | 50% |
| 2003 | 267 | 65% | 13.96 | 13.50 | 81-81-5 | 50% |
| 2002 | 267 | 61% | 13.64 | 13.51 | 90-66-4 | 58% |
| 2001 | 259 | 62% | 13.43 | 13.11 | 86-79-6 | 52% |
| 2000 | 259 | 61% | 13.78 | 13.45 | 97-78-5 | 55% |
| 1999 | 259 | 63% | 13.85 | 13.30 | 91-79-9 | 54% |
| 1998 | 251 | 69% | 12.93 | 12.19 | 73-89-6 | 45% |
| 1997 | 251 | 62% | 13.49 | 13.29 | 83-74-6 | 53% |
| 1996 | 251 | 65% | 13.27 | 13.01 | 87-75-4 | 54% |
| 1995 | 251 | 65% | 12.65 | 12.59 | 95-77-4 | 55% |
| 1994 | 235 | 60% | 12.68 | 12.35 | 73-69-4 | 51% |
| 1993 | 235 | 62% | 13.47 | 13.15 | 84-72-5 | 54% |
| 1992 | 235 | 71% | 14.38 | 14.23 | 90-79-0 | 53% |
| 1991 | 235 | 70% | 13.11 | 12.56 | 66-74-3 | 47% |
| 1990 | 235 | 67% | 14.24 | 13.78 | 71-80-6 | 47% |
| 1989 | 233 | 65% | 14.00 | 13.77 | 72-64-2 | 53% |
| 1988 | 233 | 63% | 14.25 | 14.07 | 73-67-1 | 52% |
| 1987 | 177 | 60% | 14.16 | 14.17 | 63-48-3 | 57% |
| 1986 | 233 | 68% | 14.11 | 13.91 | 84-62-2 | 58% |
| 1985 | 233 | 68% | 13.97 | 13.71 | 58-72-4 | 45% |
| 1984 | 233 | 67% | 14.10 | 13.63 | 62-66-2 | 48% |
| 1983 | 233 | 57% | 13.98 | 14.10 | 61-47-1 | 56% |
| 1982 | 141 | 60% | 12.92 | 12.97 | 41-31-0 | 57% |
| 1981 | 233 | 58% | 14.12 | 14.05 | 66-53-3 | 55% |
| 1980 | 233 | 60% | 13.71 | 13.37 | 97-70-9 | 58% |