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College football · 2026 season · Week 6 · generated 2026-10-09 12:00 PDT

College picks

FBS games from opponent-adjusted PPA ratings — college football’s answer to EPA, garbage time excluded. The model never sees the betting line; the line is only the benchmark we measure against. Same honesty rules as the NFL side: every pick published before kickoff, every result graded in public.

55games
54spread plays
29total plays

Graded results — every pick marked won, lost, or push. Nothing hidden, nothing rewritten.

No new college picks this week — our college data feed hit its monthly limit, so this board stays on Week 6 (generated Oct 9) and Week 7 games were not picked. Nothing below has been edited after the fact: every Week 6 pick is shown with its graded result. College picks resume when the feed resets, expected Nov 1. NFL, NBA and NCAAB picks are unaffected.
56-46-255%
ATS this season →
32-46-041%
O/U this season →
For fun · not a strategy

Parlay of the week✗ Lost

Our 3 highest-conviction picks, combined
  • Over 58.5South Carolina @ Florida
    53%
  • Over 51.25James Madison @ Georgia Southern
    53%
  • Under 56.5Maryland @ Ohio State
    53%
Model’s combined chance
15% · fair odds +585
Books typically pay
+600 on 3 legs

The honest fine print: parlays multiply the book’s edge along with the payout. And our model’s confidence is unproven until the backtest says otherwise. Entertainment, not a strategy.

Honest LineNFL picksThe same public-track-record model, on the NFL board.View picks →

Every game

Model vs. Vegas, side by side

Florida State logoFlorida State@Louisville logoLouisville

Fri, Oct 9
Spread · us
Louisville -7.4
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Louisville -4
Vegas line
Disagreement
3.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Louisville -4 · 51% to cover
Total · us
61.5
Our number
Total · Vegas
59.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Over 59.75 · 50%

Wyoming logoWyoming@San José State logoSan José State

Fri, Oct 9
Spread · us
San José State -5.8
Our number
Spread · Vegas
San José State -4.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.3 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
San José State -4.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
44.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
42.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 42.5 · 50%

Washington State logoWashington State@Utah State logoUtah State

Fri, Oct 9
Spread · us
Utah State -5.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Utah State -4
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Utah State -4 · 50% to cover
Total · us
39.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
43.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Under 43.75 · 51%

Iowa logoIowa@Washington logoWashington

Fri, Oct 9
Spread · us
Iowa -1.6
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Washington -2.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.3 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Iowa +2.75 · 51% to cover
Total · us
34.1
Our number
Total · Vegas
40.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
6.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Under 40.5 · 52%

Iowa State logoIowa State@BYU logoBYU

Fri, Oct 9
Spread · us
BYU -13
Our number
Spread · Vegas
BYU -11
Vegas line
Disagreement
2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
BYU -11 · 50% to cover
Total · us
58.3
Our number
Total · Vegas
46.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
11.8 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

North Carolina logoNorth Carolina@Pittsburgh logoPittsburgh

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Pittsburgh -16.6
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Pittsburgh -3.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
12.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Pittsburgh -3.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
49.1
Our number
Total · Vegas
47.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 47.25 · 50%

Sacramento State logoSacramento State@Bowling Green logoBowling Green

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Bowling Green -9.5
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Bowling Green -8.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Bowling Green -8.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
39.9
Our number
Total · Vegas
43.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
3.6 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Under 43.5 · 51%

Indiana logoIndiana@Nebraska logoNebraska

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Indiana -17.5
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Indiana -7.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
9.7 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Indiana -7.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
62.3
Our number
Total · Vegas
47.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
14.5 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Tulane logoTulane@Army logoArmy

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Tulane -4.8
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Army -3.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
8.3 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Tulane +3.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
55.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
48.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 48.25 · 53%

Texas A&M logoTexas A&M@Missouri logoMissouri

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Missouri -8.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Missouri -3.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
5.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Missouri -3.5 · 51% to cover
Total · us
50.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
48.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 48.5 · 50%

UCF logoUCF@Oklahoma State logoOklahoma State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
UCF -2.8
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Oklahoma State -10.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
13.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
UCF +10.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
37.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
53.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
15.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Wake Forest logoWake Forest@NC State logoNC State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Wake Forest -10.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Wake Forest -3.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Wake Forest -3.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
60.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
58.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 58.5 · 50%

Arizona logoArizona@West Virginia logoWest Virginia

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Arizona -23.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Arizona -3
Vegas line
Disagreement
20.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Arizona -3 · 50% to cover
Total · us
66.5
Our number
Total · Vegas
61
Vegas line
Disagreement
5.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Over 61 · 52%

Ball State logoBall State@Northwestern logoNorthwestern

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Northwestern -20.6
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Northwestern -35.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
15.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Ball State +35.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
49.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
52.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Under 52.5 · 50%

South Carolina logoSouth Carolina@Florida logoFlorida

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Florida -4.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Florida -11.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
South Carolina +11.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
66.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
58.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
8.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 58.5 · 53%

Old Dominion logoOld Dominion@App State logoApp State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Old Dominion -7.5
Our number
Spread · Vegas
App State -10
Vegas line
Disagreement
17.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Old Dominion +10 · 50% to cover
Total · us
37.1
Our number
Total · Vegas
47.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.7 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Miami (OH) logoMiami (OH)@Massachusetts logoMassachusetts

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Miami (OH) -20.4
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Miami (OH) -3.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
16.7 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Miami (OH) -3.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
54.9
Our number
Total · Vegas
45.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
9.4 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Eastern Michigan logoEastern Michigan@Akron logoAkron

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Eastern Michigan -4
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Eastern Michigan -5.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Akron +5.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
58.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
51.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 51.5 · 52%

Houston logoHouston@Kansas State logoKansas State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Kansas State -12.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Kansas State -2.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
9.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Kansas State -2.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
64.1
Our number
Total · Vegas
55.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
8.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Charlotte logoCharlotte@North Texas logoNorth Texas

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
North Texas -34.4
Our number
Spread · Vegas
North Texas -28.2
Vegas line
Disagreement
6.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
North Texas -28.25 · 51% to cover
Total · us
47.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
57.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.2 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Stanford logoStanford@Notre Dame logoNotre Dame

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Notre Dame -43.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Notre Dame -38.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Notre Dame -38.5 · 51% to cover
Total · us
52.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
54.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Under 54.5 · 50%

UCLA logoUCLA@Oregon logoOregon

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Oregon -20.6
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Oregon -10.2
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.3 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Oregon -10.25 · 50% to cover
Total · us
53.3
Our number
Total · Vegas
59.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
6.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Under 59.5 · 52%

Illinois logoIllinois@Michigan State logoMichigan State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Michigan State -1.5
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Illinois -2.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Michigan State +2.5 · 51% to cover
Total · us
62.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
47.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
14.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Buffalo logoBuffalo@Toledo logoToledo

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Toledo -24.1
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Toledo -19.2
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Toledo -19.25 · 51% to cover
Total · us
41.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
55.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
13.8 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Central Michigan logoCentral Michigan@Ohio logoOhio

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Central Michigan -1.1
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Ohio -3
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Central Michigan +3 · 51% to cover
Total · us
59.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
46.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
13.4 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Kent State logoKent State@Western Michigan logoWestern Michigan

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Western Michigan -14.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Western Michigan -13.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
0.7 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Western Michigan -13.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
50.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
43.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Over 43.25 · 52%

Ole Miss logoOle Miss@Vanderbilt logoVanderbilt

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Vanderbilt -4.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Ole Miss -9.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
14.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Vanderbilt +9.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
81
Our number
Total · Vegas
54.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
26.5 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Texas logoTexas@Oklahoma logoOklahoma

Neutral site
Spread · us
Oklahoma -2.6
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Texas -7.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Oklahoma +7.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
28.5
Our number
Total · Vegas
39.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.8 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Tulsa logoTulsa@Navy logoNavy

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Navy -8.1
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Navy -1.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
6.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Navy -1.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
37.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
48.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
11 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Duke logoDuke@Georgia Tech logoGeorgia Tech

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Duke -3.7
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Duke -6.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Georgia Tech +6.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
66.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
43.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
22.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Virginia Tech logoVirginia Tech@California logoCalifornia

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Virginia Tech -8.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Virginia Tech -10
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
California +10 · 50% to cover
Total · us
56.2
Our number
Total · Vegas
53.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 53.25 · 50%

UConn logoUConn@Temple logoTemple

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Temple -2.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Temple -3.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
0.6 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
UConn +3.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
68.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
54.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
13.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Rice logoRice@East Carolina logoEast Carolina

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
East Carolina -27.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
East Carolina -9.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
17.6 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
East Carolina -9.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
48.6
Our number
Total · Vegas
46.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 46.75 · 50%

Tennessee logoTennessee@Arkansas logoArkansas

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Tennessee -15.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Tennessee -13.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.7 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Tennessee -13.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
63.3
Our number
Total · Vegas
51.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
11.8 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Maryland logoMaryland@Ohio State logoOhio State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Ohio State -43.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Ohio State -32.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Ohio State -32.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
48.9
Our number
Total · Vegas
56.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.6 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Under 56.5 · 53%

San Diego State logoSan Diego State@Oregon State logoOregon State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
San Diego State -6.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Oregon State -15.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
22.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
San Diego State +15.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
43.8
Our number
Total · Vegas
53.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
9.7 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

LSU logoLSU@Kentucky logoKentucky

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
LSU -11.8
Our number
Spread · Vegas
LSU -9
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
LSU -9 · 50% to cover
Total · us
27.1
Our number
Total · Vegas
50.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
23.4 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

North Dakota State logoNorth Dakota State@UNLV logoUNLV

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
North Dakota State -7.6
Our number
Spread · Vegas
North Dakota State -3
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.6 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
North Dakota State -3 · 51% to cover
Total · us
43
Our number
Total · Vegas
47.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
4.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Under 47.5 · 51%

Coastal Carolina logoCoastal Carolina@Marshall logoMarshall

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Marshall -15.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Marshall -4.2
Vegas line
Disagreement
10.9 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Marshall -4.25 · 50% to cover
Total · us
64.9
Our number
Total · Vegas
58.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
6.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 58.75 · 52%

UAB logoUAB@Memphis logoMemphis

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Memphis -15.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Memphis -14
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Memphis -14 · 50% to cover
Total · us
58.8
Our number
Total · Vegas
53.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
5.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 53.75 · 52%

Nevada logoNevada@UTEP logoUTEP

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Nevada -13.3
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Nevada -9.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
3.8 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Nevada -9.5 · 51% to cover
Total · us
48.1
Our number
Total · Vegas
49.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Under 49.5 · 50%

Syracuse logoSyracuse@Virginia logoVirginia

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Virginia -26.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Virginia -9.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
17.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Virginia -9.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
32.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
50.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
17.8 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Louisiana logoLouisiana@Louisiana Tech logoLouisiana Tech

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Louisiana -4.4
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Louisiana Tech -3
Vegas line
Disagreement
7.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Louisiana +3 · 50% to cover
Total · us
43.2
Our number
Total · Vegas
48.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
5.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Under 48.25 · 52%

Air Force logoAir Force@Northern Illinois logoNorthern Illinois

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Air Force -13.1
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Air Force -7
Vegas line
Disagreement
6.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Air Force -7 · 51% to cover
Total · us
67.9
Our number
Total · Vegas
46.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
21.2 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

James Madison logoJames Madison@Georgia Southern logoGeorgia Southern

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
James Madison -25.5
Our number
Spread · Vegas
James Madison -7.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
18 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
James Madison -7.5 · 50% to cover
Total · us
59.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
51.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
8.2 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 51.25 · 53%

USC logoUSC@Penn State logoPenn State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Penn State -0.4
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Penn State -1.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
USC +1.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
70
Our number
Total · Vegas
54.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
15.5 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Georgia logoGeorgia@Alabama logoAlabama

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Alabama -1.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Alabama -2
Vegas line
Disagreement
0.1 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — we agree with Vegas here.
Total · us
56.3
Our number
Total · Vegas
51.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Over 51.25 · 52%

Minnesota logoMinnesota@Purdue logoPurdue

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Purdue -1.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Minnesota -2.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
3.7 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Purdue +2.5 · 51% to cover
Total · us
58.4
Our number
Total · Vegas
49.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
8.6 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Kansas logoKansas@Utah logoUtah

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Utah -18.8
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Utah -15.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
3.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Utah -15.75 · 51% to cover
Total · us
66.2
Our number
Total · Vegas
51.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
14.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Hawai'i logoHawai'i@Arizona State logoArizona State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Arizona State -7.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Arizona State -20.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
13.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Hawai'i +20.75 · 50% to cover
Total · us
48
Our number
Total · Vegas
50.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.5 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Under 50.5 · 50%

Boise State logoBoise State@Fresno State logoFresno State

Sat, Oct 10
Spread · us
Boise State -18.1
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Boise State -7
Vegas line
Disagreement
11.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pickPush
Boise State -7 · 50% to cover
Total · us
34.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
48.3
Vegas line
Disagreement
13.6 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

Missouri State logoMissouri State@Western Kentucky logoWestern Kentucky

Thu, Oct 8
Spread · us
Missouri State -1.8
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Western Kentucky -1.2
Vegas line
Disagreement
3 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Missouri State +1.25 · 57% to cover
Total · us
55.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
56.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Under 56.75 · 52%

Sam Houston logoSam Houston@Liberty logoLiberty

Thu, Oct 8
Spread · us
Liberty -22.2
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Liberty -13.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
8.7 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Liberty -13.5 · 69% to cover
Total · us
61.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
52.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — our total is too far from the market to trust.

South Florida logoSouth Florida@UTSA logoUTSA

Thu, Oct 8
Spread · us
South Florida -11.9
Our number
Spread · Vegas
UTSA -6.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
18.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
South Florida +6.5 · 85% to cover
Total · us
50.7
Our number
Total · Vegas
49.8
Vegas line
Disagreement
0.9 pts
pts of disagreement
No play — we agree with Vegas here.

South Alabama logoSouth Alabama@Arkansas State logoArkansas State

Thu, Oct 8
Spread · us
Arkansas State -4.1
Our number
Spread · Vegas
Arkansas State -3
Vegas line
Disagreement
1.1 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✗ Lost
Arkansas State -3 · 53% to cover
Total · us
62.9
Our number
Total · Vegas
60.5
Vegas line
Disagreement
2.4 pts
pts of disagreement
Model pick✓ Won
Over 60.5 · 55%