College football · Full history · nothing hidden
Track record
Opponent-adjusted PPA/play ratings (garbage time excluded), FBS-vs-FBS only. The betting line is never an input. Walk-forward: every prediction made before learning the result.
Correction — October 13, 2026
This backtest was regenerated and restated; the old numbers were wrong in the model's favor. Two fixes: (1) the old run stepped through games by week number, and because postseason week numbers restart, a few games were effectively rated using later results. Games are now processed strictly by date. (2) Predicted totals now use the shrinkage adopted October 12 — totals pulled 30% toward the league scoring average, validated walk-forward — which the live model uses starting with the Week 7 picks. Spread ratings were not changed by the shrinkage; the ATS change comes entirely from the ordering fix.
Old → new: games 8,945 → 8,947 · ATS 4157-4185-153 (49.8%) → 4104-4220-154 (49.3%) · over/under 4111-4002-89 (50.7%) → 3990-3871-88 (50.8%) · totals error (RMSE) 18.71 → 17.72. The previous figures remain in the site's version history — nothing was quietly edited.
12
Seasons backtested
8,947
Games
70%
Straight-up
4104-4220-154 · 49%
ATS (≥0.5pt edge)
2026 season — livegrading in progress
This season’s picks, graded as games go final. Nothing hidden, nothing rewritten.
56-46-2
55%
Against the spread, 2026
32-46-0
41%
Over/under, 2026
0-2-0
0%
Parlay of the week, 2026
Week 6
Parlay:Over 58.5 · Over 51.25 · Under 56.5loss
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS | O/U pick | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida State @  Louisville | 20-44 | Louisville -4 (51%) | win | Over 59.75 (50%) | win |
 Wyoming @  San José State | 16-13 | San José State -4.5 (50%) | loss | Over 42.5 (50%) | loss |
 Washington State @  Utah State | 16-17 | Utah State -4 (50%) | loss | Under 43.75 (51%) | win |
 Iowa @  Washington | 41-24 | Iowa +2.75 (51%) | win | Under 40.5 (52%) | loss |
 Iowa State @  BYU | 10-24 | BYU -11 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 North Carolina @  Pittsburgh | 21-17 | Pittsburgh -3.75 (50%) | loss | Over 47.25 (50%) | loss |
 Sacramento State @  Bowling Green | 10-38 | Bowling Green -8.5 (50%) | win | Under 43.5 (51%) | loss |
 Indiana @  Nebraska | 20-17 | Indiana -7.75 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Tulane @  Army | 17-20 | Tulane +3.5 (50%) | win | Over 48.25 (53%) | loss |
 Texas A&M @  Missouri | 6-27 | Missouri -3.5 (51%) | win | Over 48.5 (50%) | loss |
 UCF @  Oklahoma State | 28-42 | UCF +10.75 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Wake Forest @  NC State | 38-14 | Wake Forest -3.5 (50%) | win | Over 58.5 (50%) | loss |
 Arizona @  West Virginia | 52-31 | Arizona -3 (50%) | win | Over 61 (52%) | win |
 Ball State @  Northwestern | 14-45 | Ball State +35.75 (50%) | win | Under 52.5 (50%) | loss |
 South Carolina @  Florida | 38-19 | South Carolina +11.5 (50%) | win | Over 58.5 (53%) | loss |
 Old Dominion @  App State | 10-3 | Old Dominion +10 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 Miami (OH) @  Massachusetts | 20-19 | Miami (OH) -3.75 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Eastern Michigan @  Akron | 25-23 | Akron +5.5 (50%) | win | Over 51.5 (52%) | loss |
 Houston @  Kansas State | 35-16 | Kansas State -2.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Charlotte @  North Texas | 10-50 | North Texas -28.25 (51%) | win | No play | — |
 Stanford @  Notre Dame | 7-58 | Notre Dame -38.5 (51%) | win | Under 54.5 (50%) | loss |
 UCLA @  Oregon | 17-15 | Oregon -10.25 (50%) | loss | Under 59.5 (52%) | win |
 Illinois @  Michigan State | 38-37 | Michigan State +2.5 (51%) | win | No play | — |
 Buffalo @  Toledo | 23-8 | Toledo -19.25 (51%) | loss | No play | — |
 Central Michigan @  Ohio | 14-31 | Central Michigan +3 (51%) | loss | No play | — |
 Kent State @  Western Michigan | 7-38 | Western Michigan -13.5 (50%) | win | Over 43.25 (52%) | win |
 Ole Miss @  Vanderbilt | 52-17 | Vanderbilt +9.75 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Texas @  Oklahoma | 24-27 | Oklahoma +7.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 Tulsa @  Navy | 26-34 | Navy -1.75 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 Duke @  Georgia Tech | 25-28 | Georgia Tech +6.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 Virginia Tech @  California | 20-25 | California +10 (50%) | win | Over 53.25 (50%) | loss |
 UConn @  Temple | 34-20 | UConn +3.5 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 Rice @  East Carolina | 12-28 | East Carolina -9.75 (50%) | win | Over 46.75 (50%) | loss |
 Tennessee @  Arkansas | 24-17 | Tennessee -13.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Maryland @  Ohio State | 16-45 | Ohio State -32.5 (50%) | loss | Under 56.5 (53%) | loss |
 San Diego State @  Oregon State | 14-66 | San Diego State +15.5 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 LSU @  Kentucky | 34-35 | LSU -9 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 North Dakota State @  UNLV | 7-13 | North Dakota State -3 (51%) | loss | Under 47.5 (51%) | win |
 Coastal Carolina @  Marshall | 27-21 | Marshall -4.25 (50%) | loss | Over 58.75 (52%) | loss |
 UAB @  Memphis | 13-38 | Memphis -14 (50%) | win | Over 53.75 (52%) | loss |
 Nevada @  UTEP | 30-13 | Nevada -9.5 (51%) | win | Under 49.5 (50%) | win |
 Syracuse @  Virginia | 25-28 | Virginia -9.75 (50%) | loss | No play | — |
 Louisiana @  Louisiana Tech | 31-32 | Louisiana +3 (50%) | win | Under 48.25 (52%) | loss |
 Air Force @  Northern Illinois | 28-7 | Air Force -7 (51%) | win | No play | — |
 James Madison @  Georgia Southern | 27-24 | James Madison -7.5 (50%) | loss | Over 51.25 (53%) | loss |
 USC @  Penn State | 31-23 | USC +1.75 (50%) | win | No play | — |
 Georgia @  Alabama | 20-17 | No play | — | Over 51.25 (52%) | loss |
 Minnesota @  Purdue | 13-41 | Purdue +2.5 (51%) | win | No play | — |
 Kansas @  Utah | 24-41 | Utah -15.75 (51%) | win | No play | — |
 Hawai'i @  Arizona State | 12-30 | Hawai'i +20.75 (50%) | win | Under 50.5 (50%) | win |
 Boise State @  Fresno State | 38-31 | Boise State -7 (50%) | push | No play | — |
 Missouri State @  Western Kentucky | 13-34 | Missouri State +1.25 (57%) | loss | Under 56.75 (52%) | win |
 Sam Houston @  Liberty | 3-35 | Liberty -13.5 (69%) | win | No play | — |
 South Florida @  UTSA | 24-31 | South Florida +6.5 (85%) | loss | No play | — |
 South Alabama @  Arkansas State | 56-49 | Arkansas State -3 (53%) | loss | Over 60.5 (55%) | win |
Week 5
Parlay:UConn +6.5 · Notre Dame -21 · Over 45.75loss
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS | O/U pick | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Kentucky @  New Mexico State | 13-34 | No play | — | Under 57.25 (69%) | win |
| North Texas @ Tulsa | 45-44 | North Texas -1.25 (85%) | loss | Under 57.25 (53%) | loss |
Liberty @  Delaware | 30-14 | Liberty -7.5 (54%) | win | Over 50.25 (82%) | loss |
| Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech | 35-33 | Pittsburgh +3 (77%) | win | No play | — |
| Penn State @ Northwestern | 13-34 | Penn State -2.75 (76%) | loss | Over 45.5 (79%) | win |
| Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 37-26 | Notre Dame -21 (97%) | loss | No play | — |
 Middle Tennessee @ Kansas | 0-55 | Middle Tennessee +18.25 (65%) | loss | Over 49.5 (82%) | win |
Alabama @  Mississippi State | 56-23 | Alabama -6 (74%) | win | Under 59.75 (57%) | loss |
| UCF @ Houston | 17-27 | UCF +11.75 (54%) | win | Under 51.5 (54%) | win |
| Syracuse @ UConn | 42-41 | UConn +6.5 (98%) | win | No play | — |
| West Virginia @ Iowa State | 42-45 | Iowa State -3 (88%) | push | Under 53.25 (55%) | loss |
 Boston College @  SMU | 16-25 | SMU -21 (54%) | loss | Under 55.5 (55%) | win |
| Navy @ Air Force | 9-14 | Navy +3.5 (69%) | loss | Over 45.75 (97%) | loss |
 Michigan @ Minnesota | 14-20 | Michigan -5.75 (77%) | loss | Over 43.25 (70%) | loss |
| Stanford @ Wake Forest | 3-57 | Wake Forest -13.25 (59%) | win | Under 53.5 (61%) | loss |
Michigan State @  Wisconsin | 3-31 | Michigan State +10 (75%) | loss | Under 43.25 (67%) | win |
| Vanderbilt @ Georgia | 14-38 | Vanderbilt +25.25 (77%) | win | Over 50.5 (87%) | win |
| Western Michigan @ Buffalo | 20-17 | No play | — | Under 46.5 (71%) | win |
| Toledo @ Ball State | 39-24 | Toledo -19.5 (71%) | loss | Under 52.5 (77%) | loss |
| Akron @ Central Michigan | 17-41 | Central Michigan -6.5 (78%) | win | Over 46.75 (63%) | win |
Old Dominion @  Georgia State | 10-42 | Old Dominion +2.5 (91%) | loss | Under 51.5 (64%) | loss |
| California @ UNLV | 31-39 | UNLV -2.5 (85%) | win | Over 53.5 (69%) | win |
| Ohio State @ Iowa | 31-14 | Iowa +14.5 (61%) | loss | Under 45.5 (66%) | win |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | 24-20 | Miami (OH) -13.5 (77%) | loss | No play | — |
| Ohio @ Kent State | 13-10 | Ohio -3.5 (79%) | loss | Over 50.75 (78%) | loss |
| Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts | 38-14 | Eastern Michigan +6.25 (87%) | win | Over 48.75 (72%) | win |
 Auburn @ Tennessee | 14-24 | Tennessee -7 (53%) | win | Under 54.25 (66%) | win |
| Florida @ Missouri | 17-45 | Missouri +5.5 (74%) | win | Under 57.25 (70%) | loss |
| Memphis @ Charlotte | 59-8 | Memphis -20.5 (69%) | win | Under 52.75 (76%) | loss |
| Louisville @ NC State | 28-31 | Louisville -3.5 (74%) | loss | Under 58.5 (62%) | loss |
| Virginia @ Florida State | 7-38 | Florida State +2.75 (55%) | win | Over 51.5 (54%) | loss |
| Wyoming @ North Dakota State | 0-28 | North Dakota State -18.25 (63%) | win | Under 45.5 (88%) | win |
| Marshall @ James Madison | 17-45 | James Madison -19.25 (52%) | win | Under 56.25 (63%) | loss |
| Maryland @ Nebraska | 23-48 | Maryland +14.5 (55%) | loss | No play | — |
UTEP @  New Mexico | 7-61 | New Mexico -22.5 (84%) | win | Under 48.5 (77%) | loss |
| Purdue @ Illinois | 24-17 | No play | — | Over 61.5 (77%) | loss |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | 35-34 | South Carolina -2.75 (56%) | loss | Under 53.5 (66%) | loss |
Oregon State @  Colorado State | 56-26 | Colorado State +6 (64%) | loss | Over 61.5 (53%) | win |
| UTSA @ Rice | 16-14 | UTSA -11.75 (61%) | loss | Over 56.25 (55%) | loss |
 UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 35-52 | No play | — | Under 57.5 (56%) | loss |
BYU @  TCU | 17-10 | BYU -6.5 (58%) | win | Over 47.75 (57%) | loss |
| Arkansas @ Texas A&M | 7-34 | Arkansas +14 (57%) | loss | Over 50.25 (89%) | loss |
| Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina | 31-24 | Coastal Carolina +2.5 (53%) | loss | Over 54.25 (78%) | win |
| Temple @ South Florida | 17-13 | South Florida -6.5 (81%) | loss | Over 48.25 (83%) | loss |
 Texas Tech @  Colorado | 29-7 | Texas Tech -12 (91%) | win | Under 50.5 (73%) | win |
| Washington @ USC | 21-25 | USC -9.5 (53%) | loss | Under 58.75 (57%) | win |
| Army @ Louisiana Tech | 29-31 | Louisiana Tech +2.5 (52%) | win | Under 47.5 (58%) | loss |
 Miami @  Clemson | 41-13 | Miami -16.75 (51%) | win | No play | — |
| Utah State @ Boise State | 18-37 | Utah State +20.25 (58%) | win | No play | — |
Indiana @  Rutgers | 47-15 | Indiana -23.75 (84%) | win | Over 56.25 (70%) | win |
| Arkansas State @ Louisiana | 20-23 | Louisiana -6.5 (54%) | loss | Under 47.75 (61%) | win |
| Fresno State @ Washington State | 26-6 | Washington State -1.75 (68%) | loss | Under 45.5 (90%) | win |
 Baylor @ Arizona State | 55-19 | Baylor +4 (58%) | win | Under 49.25 (66%) | loss |
 Texas State @ San Diego State | 29-31 | San Diego State +7 (76%) | win | Over 59.25 (54%) | win |
 Cincinnati @ Arizona | 7-34 | No play | — | Over 55.5 (85%) | loss |
| San José State @ Hawai'i | 20-16 | No play | — | Over 51.5 (63%) | loss |
ATS by era
The college market is less efficient than the NFL’s — but “less efficient” is not the same as “beatable.” The dashed line is 52.4% — break-even against standard -110 vig.
2010s
50%
2020s
49%
Season by season
Every season the model was tested on. Green ATS seasons beat the vig; the rest didn’t.
| Season | Games | Straight-up | Our RMSE | Line RMSE | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 806 | 69% | 17.35 | 15.00 | 363-388-17 | 48% |
| 2024 | 794 | 70% | 17.84 | 15.41 | 357-382-17 | 48% |
| 2023 | 790 | 72% | 17.13 | 15.21 | 366-364-15 | 50% |
| 2022 | 774 | 67% | 17.75 | 15.25 | 355-362-13 | 50% |
| 2021 | 767 | 69% | 17.58 | 15.60 | 361-353-10 | 51% |
| 2020 | 534 | 70% | 18.20 | 16.02 | 230-265-9 | 46% |
| 2019 | 773 | 72% | 17.38 | 15.47 | 365-360-10 | 50% |
| 2018 | 769 | 71% | 17.84 | 15.98 | 344-370-13 | 48% |
| 2017 | 770 | 70% | 17.89 | 15.64 | 353-355-16 | 50% |
| 2016 | 747 | 69% | 18.83 | 16.60 | 332-368-15 | 47% |
| 2015 | 757 | 74% | 17.60 | 15.88 | 349-359-8 | 49% |
| 2014 | 666 | 68% | 18.40 | 15.74 | 329-294-11 | 53% |