The model's own ratings · updated 2026-10-19 14:53 PDT
Power rankings
These are the Honest Line model's internal predictive ratings — the same numbers behind every nightly pick. A team's rating is its net efficiency: expected points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions against a league-average opponent, from the model's per-possession efficiency ratings. Because it's measured per possession, pace can't inflate it — a fast team gets no credit just for playing more possessions. This is not a resume ranking: it doesn't care about win-loss records or polls, and it moves only when games are played. Like everything here, it's published to be checked, not believed.
| # | Team | Rating | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | +13.4 | – |
| 2 | Duke | +12.2 | – |
| 3 | Michigan | +11.5 | – |
| 4 | Houston | +11.1 | – |
| 5 | UMBC | +11.0 | – |
| 6 | Gonzaga | +10.5 | – |
| 7 | Arizona | +10.2 | – |
| 8 | Illinois | +10.2 | – |
| 9 | Iowa State | +10.0 | – |
| 10 | South Florida | +9.9 | – |
| 11 | High Point | +9.2 | – |
| 12 | Navy | +8.6 | – |
| 13 | St. John's | +8.2 | – |
| 14 | Saint Mary's | +8.0 | – |
| 15 | Howard | +7.7 | – |
| 16 | McNeese | +7.7 | – |
| 17 | St. Thomas-Minnesota | +7.3 | – |
| 18 | Akron | +7.2 | – |
| 19 | New Mexico | +7.0 | – |
| 20 | Robert Morris | +6.8 | – |
| 21 | Grand Canyon | +6.7 | – |
| 22 | Hofstra | +6.7 | – |
| 23 | Purdue | +6.6 | – |
| 24 | North Dakota State | +6.5 | – |
| 25 | UConn | +6.3 | – |
| 26 | Yale | +6.0 | – |
| 27 | Arkansas State | +5.9 | – |
| 28 | UT Rio Grande Valley | +5.9 | – |
| 29 | Alabama | +5.8 | – |
| 30 | Tennessee State | +5.7 | – |
| 31 | Virginia | +5.7 | – |
| 32 | Merrimack | +5.6 | – |
| 33 | Michigan State | +5.6 | – |
| 34 | Belmont | +5.4 | – |
| 35 | Central Arkansas | +5.4 | – |
| 36 | Tulsa | +5.4 | – |
| 37 | Wichita State | +5.4 | – |
| 38 | Northern Iowa | +5.3 | – |
| 39 | Nebraska | +5.2 | – |
| 40 | California Baptist | +5.1 | – |
| 41 | Saint Louis | +5.0 | – |
| 42 | Santa Clara | +5.0 | – |
| 43 | Utah State | +5.0 | – |
| 44 | Utah Valley | +4.8 | – |
| 45 | Vermont | +4.8 | – |
| 46 | VCU | +4.7 | – |
| 47 | Wisconsin | +4.6 | – |
| 48 | UC Irvine | +4.5 | – |
| 49 | Boise State | +4.1 | – |
| 50 | Arkansas | +4.0 | – |
| 51 | Miami (OH) | +4.0 | – |
| 52 | Samford | +4.0 | – |
| 53 | Stephen F. Austin | +4.0 | – |
| 54 | Western Carolina | +4.0 | – |
| 55 | Louisville | +3.9 | – |
| 56 | Northern Colorado | +3.9 | – |
| 57 | Cincinnati | +3.8 | – |
| 58 | Oklahoma | +3.8 | – |
| 59 | Tennessee | +3.8 | – |
| 60 | Toledo | +3.8 | – |
| 61 | Vanderbilt | +3.8 | – |
| 62 | Siena | +3.7 | – |
| 63 | Auburn | +3.6 | – |
| 64 | Austin Peay | +3.6 | – |
| 65 | Nevada | +3.6 | – |
| 66 | Towson | +3.6 | – |
| 67 | Wright State | +3.6 | – |
| 68 | Montana State | +3.5 | – |
| 69 | Dayton | +3.4 | – |
| 70 | Harvard | +3.3 | – |
| 71 | Ohio State | +3.3 | – |
| 72 | Eastern Washington | +3.1 | – |
| 73 | Southeast Missouri State | +3.0 | – |
| 74 | Southern Illinois | +3.0 | – |
| 75 | James Madison | +2.9 | – |
| 76 | SIU Edwardsville | +2.9 | – |
| 77 | East Tennessee State | +2.7 | – |
| 78 | Furman | +2.7 | – |
| 79 | App State | +2.6 | – |
| 80 | Florida State | +2.6 | – |
| 81 | Long Island University | +2.6 | – |
| 82 | Miami | +2.6 | – |
| 83 | Monmouth | +2.6 | – |
| 84 | San Diego State | +2.6 | – |
| 85 | UNC Wilmington | +2.6 | – |
| 86 | UCLA | +2.4 | – |
| 87 | Boston University | +2.3 | – |
| 88 | Hawai'i | +2.3 | – |
| 89 | UIC | +2.3 | – |
| 90 | Louisiana Tech | +2.2 | – |
| 91 | Mount St. Mary's | +2.2 | – |
| 92 | Portland State | +2.2 | – |
| 93 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | +2.2 | – |
| 94 | Northern Kentucky | +2.1 | – |
| 95 | Texas Tech | +2.1 | – |
| 96 | Mercer | +2.0 | – |
| 97 | UC San Diego | +2.0 | – |
| 98 | Winthrop | +2.0 | – |
| 99 | Bethune-Cookman | +1.9 | – |
| 100 | UAB | +1.9 | – |
| 101 | West Virginia | +1.9 | – |
| 102 | Cornell | +1.8 | – |
| 103 | Marist | +1.8 | – |
| 104 | Saint Joseph's | +1.8 | – |
| 105 | Troy | +1.8 | – |
| 106 | Bowling Green | +1.7 | – |
| 107 | Idaho | +1.7 | – |
| 108 | Mercyhurst | +1.7 | – |
| 109 | North Carolina | +1.7 | – |
| 110 | Kennesaw State | +1.6 | – |
| 111 | Longwood | +1.6 | – |
| 112 | UC Santa Barbara | +1.5 | – |
| 113 | Seattle U | +1.4 | – |
| 114 | American University | +1.3 | – |
| 115 | Detroit Mercy | +1.3 | – |
| 116 | Iowa | +1.3 | – |
| 117 | Quinnipiac | +1.3 | – |
| 118 | Stanford | +1.3 | – |
| 119 | Texas State | +1.3 | – |
| 120 | BYU | +1.2 | – |
| 121 | Charleston | +1.2 | – |
| 122 | Fairfield | +1.2 | – |
| 123 | Sam Houston | +1.2 | – |
| 124 | Colorado State | +1.1 | – |
| 125 | Texas | +1.0 | – |
| 126 | Villanova | +1.0 | – |
| 127 | Baylor | +0.9 | – |
| 128 | Florida A&M | +0.9 | – |
| 129 | Green Bay | +0.9 | – |
| 130 | North Texas | +0.9 | – |
| 131 | California | +0.8 | – |
| 132 | Campbell | +0.8 | – |
| 133 | Iona | +0.8 | – |
| 134 | Marquette | +0.8 | – |
| 135 | South Alabama | +0.8 | – |
| 136 | Southern Miss | +0.8 | – |
| 137 | Clemson | +0.7 | – |
| 138 | Lehigh | +0.7 | – |
| 139 | UT Martin | +0.7 | – |
| 140 | Florida Gulf Coast | +0.6 | – |
| 141 | Georgia | +0.6 | – |
| 142 | Kansas | +0.6 | – |
| 143 | Queens University | +0.6 | – |
| 144 | Texas Southern | +0.6 | – |
| 145 | William & Mary | +0.6 | – |
| 146 | Liberty | +0.5 | – |
| 147 | Lindenwood | +0.5 | – |
| 148 | Middle Tennessee | +0.5 | – |
| 149 | Radford | +0.5 | – |
| 150 | TCU | +0.5 | – |
| 151 | Western Kentucky | +0.5 | – |
| 152 | Davidson | +0.4 | – |
| 153 | SMU | +0.4 | – |
| 154 | Seton Hall | +0.4 | – |
| 155 | Temple | +0.4 | – |
| 156 | Bradley | +0.3 | – |
| 157 | George Mason | +0.3 | – |
| 158 | Georgia Southern | +0.3 | – |
| 159 | Lipscomb | +0.3 | – |
| 160 | Old Dominion | +0.3 | – |
| 161 | Southern | +0.3 | – |
| 162 | Washington | +0.3 | – |
| 163 | Illinois State | +0.2 | – |
| 164 | Morehead State | +0.2 | – |
| 165 | Oakland | +0.2 | – |
| 166 | Cal State Fullerton | +0.1 | – |
| 167 | Grambling | +0.1 | – |
| 168 | Wagner | +0.1 | – |
| 169 | Wyoming | +0.1 | – |
| 170 | Cal State Northridge | 0.0 | – |
| 171 | Kent State | 0.0 | – |
| 172 | Norfolk State | 0.0 | – |
| 173 | Fordham | -0.1 | – |
| 174 | George Washington | -0.1 | – |
| 175 | Kentucky | -0.1 | – |
| 176 | Virginia Tech | -0.1 | – |
| 177 | Wofford | -0.1 | – |
| 178 | Jacksonville State | -0.2 | – |
| 179 | Le Moyne | -0.2 | – |
| 180 | Marshall | -0.2 | – |
| 181 | Saint Peter's | -0.2 | – |
| 182 | Valparaiso | -0.2 | – |
| 183 | Charleston Southern | -0.3 | – |
| 184 | Drexel | -0.3 | – |
| 185 | UC Davis | -0.3 | – |
| 186 | Ball State | -0.4 | – |
| 187 | Florida International | -0.4 | – |
| 188 | New Orleans | -0.4 | – |
| 189 | St. Bonaventure | -0.4 | – |
| 190 | Wake Forest | -0.4 | – |
| 191 | Cal Poly | -0.5 | – |
| 192 | Missouri State | -0.5 | – |
| 193 | South Dakota State | -0.5 | – |
| 194 | UT Arlington | -0.5 | – |
| 195 | Alabama A&M | -0.6 | – |
| 196 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -0.6 | – |
| 197 | NC State | -0.6 | – |
| 198 | Pennsylvania | -0.6 | – |
| 199 | Central Connecticut | -0.7 | – |
| 200 | Jacksonville | -0.7 | – |
| 201 | New Mexico State | -0.7 | – |
| 202 | Weber State | -0.7 | – |
| 203 | Florida Atlantic | -0.8 | – |
| 204 | Prairie View A&M | -0.8 | – |
| 205 | UNLV | -0.8 | – |
| 206 | Colgate | -0.9 | – |
| 207 | Chattanooga | -1.0 | – |
| 208 | Denver | -1.0 | – |
| 209 | Little Rock | -1.1 | – |
| 210 | Providence | -1.1 | – |
| 211 | New Haven | -1.2 | – |
| 212 | Presbyterian | -1.3 | – |
| 213 | Duquesne | -1.4 | – |
| 214 | Georgetown | -1.4 | – |
| 215 | Loyola Marymount | -1.4 | – |
| 216 | Stonehill | -1.4 | – |
| 217 | UNC Greensboro | -1.4 | – |
| 218 | Coastal Carolina | -1.5 | – |
| 219 | Pacific | -1.5 | – |
| 220 | UAlbany | -1.5 | – |
| 221 | West Georgia | -1.5 | – |
| 222 | Youngstown State | -1.5 | – |
| 223 | Columbia | -1.6 | – |
| 224 | Massachusetts | -1.6 | – |
| 225 | Texas A&M | -1.6 | – |
| 226 | UNC Asheville | -1.7 | – |
| 227 | Utah Tech | -1.7 | – |
| 228 | Indiana | -1.8 | – |
| 229 | Northwestern | -1.8 | – |
| 230 | UMass Lowell | -1.8 | – |
| 231 | Missouri | -1.9 | – |
| 232 | Sacred Heart | -1.9 | – |
| 233 | Tennessee Tech | -1.9 | – |
| 234 | Ole Miss | -2.0 | – |
| 235 | Oral Roberts | -2.0 | – |
| 236 | San Francisco | -2.0 | – |
| 237 | Montana | -2.1 | – |
| 238 | Bellarmine | -2.2 | – |
| 239 | Rhode Island | -2.3 | – |
| 240 | Stetson | -2.3 | – |
| 241 | Washington State | -2.3 | – |
| 242 | Omaha | -2.4 | – |
| 243 | Rice | -2.4 | – |
| 244 | Central Michigan | -2.5 | – |
| 245 | Nicholls | -2.5 | – |
| 246 | Ohio | -2.5 | – |
| 247 | South Dakota | -2.5 | – |
| 248 | Buffalo | -2.6 | – |
| 249 | Stony Brook | -2.6 | – |
| 250 | Alabama State | -2.7 | – |
| 251 | DePaul | -2.7 | – |
| 252 | Oregon State | -2.7 | – |
| 253 | Richmond | -2.7 | – |
| 254 | Charlotte | -2.8 | – |
| 255 | Creighton | -2.8 | – |
| 256 | Indiana State | -2.9 | – |
| 257 | Morgan State | -2.9 | – |
| 258 | Fresno State | -3.0 | – |
| 259 | North Dakota | -3.0 | – |
| 260 | Loyola Maryland | -3.2 | – |
| 261 | Purdue Fort Wayne | -3.2 | – |
| 262 | UCF | -3.2 | – |
| 263 | Butler | -3.4 | – |
| 264 | Long Beach State | -3.4 | – |
| 265 | North Carolina Central | -3.4 | – |
| 266 | Pittsburgh | -3.4 | – |
| 267 | East Carolina | -3.6 | – |
| 268 | Lafayette | -3.6 | – |
| 269 | Southern Utah | -3.6 | – |
| 270 | South Carolina Upstate | -3.7 | – |
| 271 | Incarnate Word | -3.8 | – |
| 272 | Lamar | -3.8 | – |
| 273 | Minnesota | -3.8 | – |
| 274 | Murray State | -3.8 | – |
| 275 | Colorado | -3.9 | – |
| 276 | Maine | -3.9 | – |
| 277 | Memphis | -3.9 | – |
| 278 | Eastern Illinois | -4.1 | – |
| 279 | Princeton | -4.1 | – |
| 280 | Eastern Kentucky | -4.2 | – |
| 281 | Holy Cross | -4.3 | – |
| 282 | Milwaukee | -4.3 | – |
| 283 | Northwestern State | -4.3 | – |
| 284 | Tarleton State | -4.3 | – |
| 285 | Oklahoma State | -4.4 | – |
| 286 | LSU | -4.5 | – |
| 287 | Manhattan | -4.5 | – |
| 288 | Rutgers | -4.5 | – |
| 289 | Fairleigh Dickinson | -4.6 | – |
| 290 | Jackson State | -4.6 | – |
| 291 | UC Riverside | -4.6 | – |
| 292 | UTEP | -4.6 | – |
| 293 | Abilene Christian | -4.8 | – |
| 294 | Drake | -4.8 | – |
| 295 | Houston Christian | -4.8 | – |
| 296 | Idaho State | -4.8 | – |
| 297 | Niagara | -4.8 | – |
| 298 | South Carolina State | -4.8 | – |
| 299 | Binghamton | -4.9 | – |
| 300 | Eastern Michigan | -4.9 | – |
| 301 | Hampton | -4.9 | – |
| 302 | Georgia State | -5.0 | – |
| 303 | Maryland Eastern Shore | -5.0 | – |
| 304 | Louisiana | -5.1 | – |
| 305 | Notre Dame | -5.1 | – |
| 306 | Oregon | -5.2 | – |
| 307 | Western Michigan | -5.2 | – |
| 308 | Xavier | -5.2 | – |
| 309 | SE Louisiana | -5.4 | – |
| 310 | Arizona State | -5.5 | – |
| 311 | Bucknell | -5.5 | – |
| 312 | Chicago State | -5.5 | – |
| 313 | IU Indianapolis | -5.5 | – |
| 314 | NJIT | -5.5 | – |
| 315 | Brown | -5.6 | – |
| 316 | Sacramento State | -5.6 | – |
| 317 | San Diego | -5.6 | – |
| 318 | Tulane | -5.6 | – |
| 319 | Southern Indiana | -5.7 | – |
| 320 | Portland | -5.8 | – |
| 321 | Syracuse | -5.8 | – |
| 322 | Northeastern | -6.0 | – |
| 323 | Alcorn State | -6.1 | – |
| 324 | North Carolina A&T | -6.1 | – |
| 325 | Boston College | -6.2 | – |
| 326 | Canisius | -6.2 | – |
| 327 | Loyola Chicago | -6.2 | – |
| 328 | Dartmouth | -6.3 | – |
| 329 | East Texas A&M | -6.3 | – |
| 330 | Elon | -6.3 | – |
| 331 | Army | -6.4 | – |
| 332 | North Florida | -6.9 | – |
| 333 | St. Francis (PA) | -6.9 | – |
| 334 | USC | -6.9 | – |
| 335 | Pepperdine | -7.1 | – |
| 336 | Delaware State | -7.3 | – |
| 337 | Kansas State | -7.3 | – |
| 338 | Maryland | -7.4 | – |
| 339 | San José State | -7.4 | – |
| 340 | La Salle | -7.5 | – |
| 341 | South Carolina | -7.5 | – |
| 342 | New Hampshire | -7.6 | – |
| 343 | Delaware | -7.7 | – |
| 344 | Georgia Tech | -7.9 | – |
| 345 | The Citadel | -7.9 | – |
| 346 | Bryant | -8.0 | – |
| 347 | Coppin State | -8.0 | – |
| 348 | Cleveland State | -8.3 | – |
| 349 | Mississippi State | -8.3 | – |
| 350 | North Alabama | -8.3 | – |
| 351 | Utah | -8.4 | – |
| 352 | Northern Arizona | -9.4 | – |
| 353 | Penn State | -10.1 | – |
| 354 | Cal State Bakersfield | -10.2 | – |
| 355 | Rider | -10.7 | – |
| 356 | UTSA | -11.3 | – |
| 357 | UL Monroe | -11.4 | – |
| 358 | Evansville | -12.1 | – |
| 359 | Mississippi Valley State | -12.5 | – |
| 360 | Gardner-Webb | -12.8 | – |
| 361 | VMI | -12.9 | – |
| 362 | Northern Illinois | -14.1 | – |
| 363 | Western Illinois | -14.2 | – |
| 364 | Kansas City | -15.7 | – |
| 365 | Air Force | -19.0 | – |
Ratings refresh with each nightly model run. A positive rating means the model expects the team to outscore a league-average opponent over 100 possessions; negative means the opposite. For how the ratings are built, see the methodology page. For whether they beat Vegas, see the track record — nothing hidden.