The model's own ratings · updated 2026-10-20 08:43 PDT
Power rankings
These are the Honest Line model's internal predictive ratings — the same numbers behind every weekly pick. A team's rating is its expected margin against an average NFL team on a neutral field, built only from play-by-play efficiency, opponent-adjusted. This is not a resume ranking: it doesn't care about win-loss records or headlines, and it moves only when games are played. Like everything here, it's published to be checked, not believed.
| # | Team | Rating | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks SEA | +10.7 | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars JAX | +10.3 | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | New England Patriots NE | +8.5 | – |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers SF | +7.4 | ▲ 2 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills BUF | +7.1 | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams LA | +6.3 | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens BAL | +5.7 | – |
| 8 | Houston Texans HOU | +5.2 | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos DEN | +4.2 | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings MIN | +3.2 | – |
| 11 | Chicago Bears CHI | +2.9 | ▲ 2 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs KC | +2.7 | ▲ 2 |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals CIN | +2.6 | ▼ 2 |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers GB | +2.1 | ▼ 2 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions DET | +1.1 | ▲ 1 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons ATL | +0.2 | ▼ 1 |
| 17 | Indianapolis Colts IND | -0.4 | – |
| 18 | Carolina Panthers CAR | -0.9 | ▲ 2 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Chargers LAC | -1.7 | ▼ 1 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers PIT | -2.0 | ▲ 3 |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints NO | -2.6 | – |
| 22 | Cleveland Browns CLE | -2.9 | ▲ 2 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles PHI | -3.7 | ▼ 4 |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB | -3.9 | ▼ 2 |
| 25 | Arizona Cardinals ARI | -4.6 | ▲ 2 |
| 26 | New York Giants NYG | -5.3 | – |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys DAL | -5.7 | ▼ 2 |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins MIA | -6.8 | – |
| 29 | Las Vegas Raiders LV | -7.0 | – |
| 30 | New York Jets NYJ | -7.5 | ▲ 2 |
| 31 | Washington Commanders WAS | -8.8 | ▼ 1 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans TEN | -8.9 | ▼ 1 |
Ratings refresh with each weekly model run. A positive rating means the model would favor the team on a neutral field; negative means it would be an underdog. For how the ratings are built, see the methodology page. For whether they beat Vegas, see the track record — 45 seasons, nothing hidden.