Week 7 · 2026 season · generated 2026-10-20 08:43 PDT

This week’s picks

14 games, 14 spread plays and 8 total plays — from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings. The model never sees the betting line; the line is only the benchmark we measure against. Lines are a snapshot from generation time and don’t update mid-week — every pick is graded against the line shown here.

14games

14spread plays

8total plays

Model probabilities for entertainment. Our backtest shows no edge vs the closing line — track record published openly.

How honest are those percentages? See the calibration receipts →

For fun · not a strategy

Parlay of the week

Our 3 highest-conviction picks, combined

Under 42.5KC @ SEA
53%
Over 47.5LA @ LV
53%
Under 38.5CLE @ TEN
52%

Model’s combined chance

14% · fair odds +599

Books typically pay

+600 on 3 legs

The honest fine print: parlays multiply the book’s edge along with the payout — on true coin flips a 3-legger’s fair price is +700, worse than the +600 books pay. And our model’s confidence is unproven: its backtest shows no edge against the closing line, and early-season ratings swing wildly. This is entertainment, not a strategy.

Honest LineEvery pick, graded in publicThe full NFL track record — winners, losers, pushes. Nothing hidden.See the record →

Every game

Model vs. Vegas, side by side

New England Patriots@Chicago Bears

Thu, Oct 22

Probable QBs — NE: Drake Maye · CHI: Caleb Williams

Spread · us

NE -7.6

Our number

Spread · Vegas

CHI -3

Vegas line

Disagreement

10.6 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

NE +3 · 50% to cover

Total · us

48.7

Our number

Total · Vegas

50.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

1.8 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Under 50.5 · 51%

Pittsburgh Steelers@New Orleans Saints

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — PIT: Aaron Rodgers · NO: Tyler Shough

Spread · us

NO -1.1

Our number

Spread · Vegas

PIT -3.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

4.6 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

NO +3.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

42.3

Our number

Total · Vegas

44.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

2.2 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Under 44.5 · 51%

San Francisco 49ers@Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — SF: Brock Purdy · ATL: Michael Penix Jr.

Spread · us

SF -2.1

Our number

Spread · Vegas

SF -3.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

1.4 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

ATL +3.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

58.9

Our number

Total · Vegas

50.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

8.4 pts

pts of disagreement

No play — our number is too far from the market to trust.

Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — CIN: Joe Burrow · BAL: Tyler Huntley

Spread · us

Pick'em

Our number

Spread · Vegas

BAL -2.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

2.5 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

CIN +2.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

60.7

Our number

Total · Vegas

51.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

9.2 pts

pts of disagreement

No play — our number is too far from the market to trust.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Carolina Panthers

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — TB: Jalon Daniels · CAR: Bryce Young

Spread · us

CAR -6

Our number

Spread · Vegas

CAR -3.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

2.5 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

CAR -3.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

43.5

Our number

Total · Vegas

44.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

1 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Under 44.5 · 51%

New York Giants@Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — NYG: Jameis Winston · HOU: C.J. Stroud

Spread · us

HOU -19

Our number

Spread · Vegas

HOU -10

Vegas line

Disagreement

9 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

HOU -10 · 50% to cover

Total · us

41.1

Our number

Total · Vegas

42.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

1.4 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Under 42.5 · 51%

Indianapolis Colts@Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — IND: Daniel Jones · MIN: Kyler Murray

Spread · us

MIN -8.9

Our number

Spread · Vegas

MIN -6.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

2.4 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

MIN -6.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

28.7

Our number

Total · Vegas

41.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

12.8 pts

pts of disagreement

No play — our number is too far from the market to trust.

Miami Dolphins@New York Jets

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — MIA: Malik Willis · NYJ: Geno Smith

Spread · us

NYJ -0.5

Our number

Spread · Vegas

NYJ -4.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

4 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

MIA +4.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

48.7

Our number

Total · Vegas

38.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

10.2 pts

pts of disagreement

No play — our number is too far from the market to trust.

Cleveland Browns@Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — CLE: Deshaun Watson · TEN: Cam Ward

Spread · us

CLE -6.1

Our number

Spread · Vegas

CLE -1.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

4.6 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

CLE -1.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

35.1

Our number

Total · Vegas

38.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

3.4 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Under 38.5 · 52%

Denver Broncos@Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — DEN: Bo Nix · ARI: Jacoby Brissett

Spread · us

DEN -7

Our number

Spread · Vegas

DEN -4.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

2.5 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

DEN -4.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

43.3

Our number

Total · Vegas

43.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

0.2 pts

pts of disagreement

No play — we agree with Vegas here.

Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — GB: Jordan Love · DET: Jared Goff

Spread · us

DET -0.8

Our number

Spread · Vegas

DET -3

Vegas line

Disagreement

2.2 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

GB +3 · 50% to cover

Total · us

62.6

Our number

Total · Vegas

53.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

9.1 pts

pts of disagreement

No play — our number is too far from the market to trust.

Los Angeles Rams@Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — LA: Matthew Stafford · LV: Kirk Cousins

Spread · us

LA -8.6

Our number

Spread · Vegas

LA -4.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

4.1 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

LA -4.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

51.6

Our number

Total · Vegas

47.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

4.1 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Over 47.5 · 53%

Kansas City Chiefs@Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Oct 25

Probable QBs — KC: Patrick Mahomes · SEA: Sam Darnold

Spread · us

SEA -8.1

Our number

Spread · Vegas

SEA -2.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

5.6 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

SEA -2.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

Our number

Total · Vegas

42.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

4.5 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Under 42.5 · 53%

Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles

Mon, Oct 26

Probable QBs — DAL: Dak Prescott · PHI: Tanner McKee

Spread · us

PHI -2.4

Our number

Spread · Vegas

DAL -4.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

6.9 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

PHI +4.5 · 50% to cover

Total · us

49.9

Our number

Total · Vegas

44.5

Vegas line

Disagreement

5.4 pts

pts of disagreement

Model pick

Over 44.5 · 52%

How to read a card: Our number is what the model thinks the spread or total should be; Vegas line is the market. A pick appears only where we disagree by enough to matter — the percentage is our estimated chance that side covers or the total lands.