Track record
Margin-adjusted Elo (fitted home edge 2.75 points, k=26, 0.5 prior-season carryover) with an offensive/defensive efficiency totals model and a rest-day adjustment (+0.58 points per rest-day difference). The closing line is never an input — only the benchmark. Walk-forward: every prediction made before learning the result.
Model vs the closing line
The walk-forward verdict, in full: the model is a decent forecaster and loses to the closing line everywhere that matters.
| Metric | Us | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin RMSE | 12.50 | 12.18 | +0.32 worse |
| Total RMSE | 18.26 | 17.69 | +0.57 worse |
| ATS (≥1.5pt disagreement) | 5,466-5,370-179 · 50% | — | needs 52.4% at -110 |
| O/U (≥3pt disagreement) | 3,930-4,207-103 · 48% | — | negative |
2026–27 season — livegrading in progress
This season’s picks, graded as games go final. Nothing hidden, nothing rewritten.
No over/under record here — we stopped publishing NBA totals. The 18,552-game backtest has them at 48.3%, worse than a coin flip. The historical evidence is in the table above and on the calibration page.
Oct 21 · partial
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
 Milwaukee Bucks @  Washington Wizards | — | Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 (51%) | — |
 Atlanta Hawks @  Orlando Magic | — | Atlanta Hawks +3.5 (51%) | — |
 Charlotte Hornets @  Brooklyn Nets | — | Charlotte Hornets +2.5 (52%) | — |
 Chicago Bulls @  Toronto Raptors | — | Chicago Bulls +9.5 (50%) | — |
 Minnesota Timberwolves @  Miami Heat | — | Miami Heat -1.5 (51%) | — |
 Indiana Pacers @  New Orleans Pelicans | — | New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (51%) | — |
 Utah Jazz @  Memphis Grizzlies | — | Memphis Grizzlies -1 (51%) | — |
 Dallas Mavericks @  Houston Rockets | — | No play | — |
 Golden State Warriors @  Los Angeles Lakers | — | No play | — |
 Phoenix Suns @  Portland Trail Blazers | — | No play | — |
 Sacramento Kings @  Los Angeles Clippers | — | No play | — |
Oct 20
| Game | Score | Spread pick | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
 Boston Celtics @  Detroit Pistons | 113-121 | Detroit Pistons +1 (50%) | win |
 Philadelphia 76ers @  New York Knicks | 106-100 | Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 (50%) | win |
 Oklahoma City Thunder @  San Antonio Spurs | 116-104 | No play | — |
ATS by era
No era comes close to a betting edge — and the gap to the line widens over time. The dashed line is 52.4% — break-even against standard -110 vig.
| Era | ATS % | O/U % | Straight-up | Our RMSE | Line RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008–2012 | 51% | 48% | 69% | 11.85 | 11.60 |
| 2013–2017 | 50% | 49% | 67% | 12.13 | 11.85 |
| 2018–2023 | 50% | 48% | 64% | 13.40 | 12.96 |
52.4% is break-even against standard -110 vig. Green = profitable, red = not.
Season by season
Every season the model was tested on. Green ATS seasons beat the vig; the rest didn’t.
| Season | Games | Straight-up | Our RMSE | Line RMSE | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3 | 33% | 10.27 | 11.36 | 2-0-0 | 100% |