NCAAB picks

Tonight’s slate from adjusted per-possession efficiency ratings — opponent-adjusted offensive/defensive points per possession plus tempo, EMA-weighted with a fitted home edge of 5.04 points, and November updates down-weighted for transfer-portal roster noise. The model never sees the betting line; the line is only the benchmark we measure against. Same honesty rules as every sport here: every pick published before tip-off, every result graded in public.

Exhibition games (before the Nov 1 regular-season opener) are excluded from training and from the graded record — if one ever lands on a card, it’s flagged experimental, same as the NBA preseason policy.