MLB · 2027 season
MLB picks
Daily MLB picks from park-adjusted exponential runs ratings — with a fitted home edge of 0.130 runs, a Normal-CDF win probability (sigma 4.135), and a totals model off the same ratings. The model never sees the betting line; the line is only the benchmark we measure against. Same honesty rules as every sport here: every pick published before first pitch, every result graded in public.
2027 season starts late March
No MLB games until Opening Day 2027 (late March). Showing the walk-forward backtest record instead.
56%
Straight-up, 22,765 games
−2.5%
Moneyline ROI, 10,081 bets
−2.7%
O/U ROI, 12,811 bets
The backtest verdict: competent forecaster, no betting edge.
Full track record →Model probabilities for entertainment. Our backtest shows no proven edge vs the closing line — track record published openly.